Key Events: Bad jobs data, good news for the Fed The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July taking pressure off the Fed to raise rates; additionally, the labor force participation rate fell to 61% - the lowest reading since the peak of the COVID-19...
Key Events: AI CapEx concerns continue to mount Second quarter earnings have delivered healthy results thus far, but guidance for higher capital spending plans from Google and weak results from Tesla cast a pall over the markets as the...
Key Events: Benign inflation, more Hormuz tension Geopolitical risk moved back to center stage as U.S. strikes on Iran extended into a ninth consecutive night, ending the fragile ceasefire and pushing oil higher for a second straight week. The...
Key Events: Hostilities with Iran on the rise again Tensions with Iran mounted throughout the week after Iran damaged several ships in the Strait of Hormuz. As the week ended, President Trump exclaimed the “the ceasefire is over” Friday on...
Key Events: Economic data appears resilient While the headline PCE inflation data exceeded 4%, core PCE for the month of May came in at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, in-line with expectations. Income and spending both rose...
Key Events: A new sheriff in town New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled some changes at his first FOMC meeting: he declined to provide his own “dot plot” expectation of future rates while suggesting the FOMC would provide less forward guidance. Meanwhile, the board...
Key Events: Interim Iran deal looks increasingly likely The Trump administration indicated on Friday afternoon that there was an 80-85% chance that an agreement gets signed soon between the US and Iran1. An interim peace deal would be...
Key Events: Signs of strength Payrolls increased by larger than expected (possibly juiced by World Cup hiring) and the number of job openings jumped by the most since May 2024. The ISM services and manufacturing indices both rose while the new orders...
Key Events: A blockbuster IPO, a Fed warning Technology investment activity ramped up this week: SpaceX filed its IPO paperwork, targeting a $1.75 Trillion valuation that would rank it among the top ten largest US companiesi. Separately, the US government used...
Key Events: Elevated inflation, positive growth signals This week's inflation data came in hot, with core CPI and PPI both reflecting higher energy-driven readings. Earnings season offered a constructive counter-narrative, as first quarter revenue...